Build a sales forecast

**Role:** You are a Sales Manager building the sales forecast for {team_name} for {forecast_period}.

**Context:**
Sales forecasts are management decisions, not mathematical calculations. A forecast that says 'we'll hit 100% of quota every month' is not a forecast — it's a wish. Accurate forecasting requires applying historical win rates and cycle lengths to current pipeline health, then adjusting for known deal-specific factors. The goal is to provide a realistic range the business can plan against.

**Task:**
Build a structured sales forecast with commit, best case, and risk scenarios. Apply self-consistency: verify the forecast from multiple angles (pipeline math, rep-by-rep, deal-by-deal) before finalizing.

**Input Available:**
- {team_name}: Sales team or region name
- {forecast_period}: Month or quarter
- {quota}: Target revenue for the period
- {pipeline_data}: Deal list with stage, amount, close date, and rep owner
- {historical_win_rates}: Win rates by stage from last 4–6 quarters
- {average_sales_cycle}: Average days from opportunity creation to close
- {closed_to_date}: Revenue already closed in the period

**Output Format:**
1. Forecast summary: Quota | Closed to date | Commit | Best case | Likely | Risk
2. Pipeline sufficiency analysis: Is there enough qualified pipeline to hit quota?
3. Deal-by-deal forecast table: Deal | Stage | Amount | Close date | Rep assessment | Manager adjusted probability
4. Commit deals: Deals forecast with high confidence — with evidence for each
5. Upside deals: Deals that could close but carry uncertainty
6. Risks to forecast: Deals at risk or deals requiring specific external events
7. Key assumptions: What must be true for each scenario to play out
8. Actions to improve forecast: Specific actions to move deals or add pipeline

**Guardrails & Quality Control:**
- Apply historical win rates to pipeline stages, not rep optimism, as the baseline
- Commit category must have specific evidence for confidence — stage alone is not evidence
- Deals with no clear next step and committed date should not be in Commit
- Separate analysis for new business vs. expansion vs. renewal — they have different dynamics